17.06.2025
Iran has almost no chance of military victory in the war that began with the attack of Israel, which has the full support of America. It is alone in the battle field. This is an asymmetric war.
Israel’s attack is the product of a roadmap it has been executing for almost 30 years.
Israel’s goal is to weaken, destabilize, and if necessary, disintegrate the countries it sees as rivals and powerful in the region, and to become a regional superpower through military strength.
The goals were formulated in the “Clean Break” report that Netanyahu ordered from a group of American neo-cons under the chair of Richard Perle, when he first became Prime Minister, 1996. Syria, Iraq and Iran were picked up as the main targets.
Israel abandoned the “land for peace” policy, which had been mostly followed by Labor governments until then, that is, wining peace by returning the lands it occupied in 1967 to the Palestinians. Making a clean break with that approach, Israel changed course to shape its strategic environment through military power and aim at a peace it determined unilaterally.
America has supported Israel’s new strategy irrespective of who is in the White House. Now, the US wants handing the Middle East over to Israel as its gendarmerie and focus its military power on China
This means the US Middle East policy is to be shaped mainly by Israeli interests.
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Stopping Iran’s nuclear program as justification for war is a pretext used by Israel.
If Iran had not conducted any nuclear program today, it would still be a target of America and Israel; just like Libya, Iraq, and Syria.
When Israel adopted a strategy of destabilizing regional rivals in 1996, Iran had not yet started uranium enrichment. The first enrichment facility was established in Isfahan (Natanz) in the 2000s. In fact, nowhere in the Clean Break report there is a mention of Iranian nuclear threat.
In the nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration (2015, JCPOA), Iran accepted that enrichment would be limited to 3.6% and kept its promise. This is far from the minimum weapon grade level of 90%. The agreement was discarded by Trump (2018) with the full support of Israel. It was the US that did not keep its word.
There are 18 intelligence organizations in US, including the most famous one, the CIA, and all of them report to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The DNI is the person in possession of the most comprehensive intelligence in the US, and perhaps in the world. Tulsi Gabard, appointed as the DNI by Trump, submitted the following presentation to Congress in March this year:
“The Intelligence Community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
That there is harmony between Israel and America on the Iranian strategy does not mean that they agree on every detail.
At that point, Netanyahu often uses a fact he knows well in his tactical moves: no matter what Israel does, America will continue to support it. Even if there is a racist and fascist government in power, as it is now.
The Biden administration had asked Israel not to launch an overly harsh attack on the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu ignored the warning, and the US continued to support it.
The US-Iran nuclear agreement negotiations were to be held over the weekend, and the possibility of an agreement had emerged. Trump had dismissed National Security Advisor Waltz, a hawk who supported war with Iran, last month. News came that Iran would agree to reduce its uranium enrichment rate to 3.6%, as it had done before. However, Israel was not happy with the prospect of an agreement, and pressed the war button.
However, it did not do that without Washington’s knowledge and approval.
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What will happen now?
Israel seeks regime change or the break-up of Iran. Let’s look at it in that context.
– Regime change or disintegration
The main reason for the 2003 Iraq war, which the Bush administration started by spreading the lie of “weapons of mass destruction”, was to destabilize the country. The same has been America’s goal in Syria since the beginning of the civil war in in 2011, all the way until the overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024.
Israel has closely coordinated with America in these two wars, but has kept a low profile in the background.
Netanyahu has now stepped onto the scene, openly encouraging regime change and internal uprising in Iran. He does not care what he does amounts to banditry.
Since he has openly revealed his ill intentions, it is for sure Netanyahu has invested hugely in preparations for the regime change gamble.
The largest minority in Iran is the Azeris, who make up a quarter of the population. Israel provides approximately 70% of Azerbaijan’s arms imports. President Aliyev is known to utter a metaphor such as “Azerbaijan-Israel relations are like an iceberg, 90% of which is underwater.”
Netanyahu had plans to travel to Baku in May, but Ankara did not give him permission to fly in the Turkish airspace and he was forced to cancel the trip. Undoubtedly, that visit was in the context of the coming Iranian attack and the two leaders would discuss issues in the 90% underwater.
There is a lot of reporting in various sources about the US and Israel providing weapons, military training and intelligence to the Iranian Kurdish organization PJAK.
In contrast, the power fantasies of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah who was overthrown in 1979, is openly supported by American and Israeli intelligence services.
Photo: The son of the deposed Shah, Reza Pahlavi, with Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel during his visit to Israel, 2023.
Despite huge efforts, the chances of Netanyahu’s dream of regime change coming true are slim. The most terrifying scenario is that the war drags on and America enters the war with the aim of regime change in Iran.
Even in that case, it is utterly unlikely that a democratic government would replace the current mullahs’ regime; most probable scenario being a civil war that will last for years, much more catastrophic than what happened in Iraq and Syria, would be taking place in Iran with a population of 90 million. There will be no winners.
However, let’s not forget that the aim of the fanatic leaders in Israel and America is not democracy in Iran, but the destabilization of the country.
– The current regime may go on
Seriously damaged, the current regime may still continue.
There is a strong opposition in Iran that seeks to move towards a more moderate regime and democracy through step-by-step reforms. Some of them are part of the current power edifice, some are outside.
Israel’s and America’s brute force policy will weaken the moderate and pro-democracy opposition, help radicals grow stronger, and pave the way for the regime to harden.
The motivations of radicals who push to build nuclear weapons will likely gain strength. Iran is a party to the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), now it may opt out.
Iran’s strategic relations with Russia and China are to be expected to grow to more robust levels. As Russia is occupied in Ukraine, new opportunities would open up especially for China’s presence and influence in Iran and the wider Middle East.
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Israel’s attack is not just any war.
The wars first in Gaza and now in Iran has exposed in the most obvious way that the US seeks to dominate the world with brute force, not by law. The madness will have global consequences.
– It is now naked power that counts. Authoritarian regimes will grow stronger.
– Political Islam and organizations prone to violence will find more fertile ground for their activities to intensify.
– Russia may enlarge its goals in Ukraine to include new targets, such as Odessa.
– Trump’s diplomatic negotiation style with Iran is along the lines of “let’s talk, take what I say, if you don’t, I’ll wipe you off, I have the most powerful weapons in the world”. Moreover, while he said to Iran “let’s meet over the weekend”, he gave green light to Israel to attack his interlocutor. This trust-demolishing attitude can only accelerate the collapse of America’s global leadership.
– The risk for World War III went up once more. Turkey is just in the middle of the hottest region (*).
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(*)- Originally published in Turkish, 15.06.2025