25.02.2024
The Ukrainian war is one of the most decisive events after World War II, arguably the most decisive one, in terms of global geopolitical shifts (*).
As we enter the third year of the war, we can comfortably say that the result is the defeat of Ukraine and the victory of Russia. The colossal failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which started in June 2023, demonstrated this. It will be necessary to wait for a peace or permanent ceasefire agreement to see the detailed and definitive results of the war; but it is unlikely that the winner(s) and loser(s) will change.
The main parameters that shaped the outcome of the war were all in Russia’s favor against Ukraine from the beginning and cannot be expected to change in the foreseeable future: population feeding the military manpower pool (4 times), economic output (14 times), military power (at an even higher rate), and military -industrial capacity (at an even higher rate).
Secondly, although most Western politicians and the media avoid admitting that Russia won, the new strategy that the Washington administration is currently working on does not envisage military and economic aid that will enable Ukraine to take back the lost territories.
Under these circumstances, not even making a new attempt to re-take the lost territories is possible for Ukraine.
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The Washington Post, one of America’s influential newspapers, recently disclosed the new Ukraine strategy under preparation by the Biden administration.
The long-term strategy “will de-emphasize winning back territory and focus instead on helping Ukraine fend off new Russian advances”. The West’s hope for 2024 is that “Ukraine will avoid losing any more territory than the one-fifth of the country now occupied by Russia”.
Aid to Ukraine will strengthen its defense and economy within the framework of the new strategy. The path to the European Union will be opened. NATO membership is out of the question and Ukraine’s security will be guaranteed by bilateral agreements with a number of Western countries.
An official’s response to people like Ukrainian President Zelensky or his Foreign Minister Kuleba, who propose “Give us powerful weapons and we will defeat Russia”, is shocking: “I think the Ukrainians are realizing there is no silver bullet, having seen a million-dollar tank destroyed by a $10,000 mine” during the counteroffensive.
This is the tragic outcome for those who accepted to enter a fate defining war of a nation with the help of a foreign country.
(In fact, the cost of a Russian mine that destroyed those expensive tanks is less than $1,000).
The new strategy represents “a sharp change”. We underlined this radical change as a possible scenario about a year ago, and it turned out to be almost exactly in that way.
The implementation of the new strategy certainly depends on Biden’s winning the November 2024 election. However, if Trump is elected, Ukraine will not face a better situation.
President Biden likes to emphasize that the United States is “the most powerful country not in the world, but in the history of the world.” Such arrogance will of course not allow openly admitting the defeat against Russia.
However, Biden’s choice of words at the joint press conference held during Zelensky’s last visit to Washington actually confirms what we write here and that the US President is surely aware of the facts on the ground:
“Russia has failed — failed thus far in trying to erase Ukraine from the map… We want to see Ukraine win the war… winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression. That’s our objective.”
At the beginning of the war, Biden administration announced other goals, though – most of which were not realized. Like “degrading” the Russian army to a state where it cannot do such a war again, etc.
The Russian army is stronger now than before the war. The military industry was run in three shifts, and for example, tank production was increased by 5.6 times, artillery shell production by 18 times, etc. Remarks from The Institute for the Study of War of America, known for its anti-Russian stance:
“… according to US intelligence sources… Russians have replaced those (initial) manpower losses and are ramping up their industrial base to make good their material losses at a rate much faster than their pre-war capacity had permitted. A victorious Russian army at the end of this war will be combat experienced and considerably larger than the pre-2022 Russian land forces.”
For the last two years, many Western military experts and politicians have come up with despising statements regarding the Russian army as poorly-led and antiquated. Now, in many countries in Europe, widespread concerns are being expressed about the same army emerging stronger from the war.
The latest fashion among European politicians is to be attentive in using conditional sentences such as “If Russia wins” when expressing those concerns. Like German Defense Minister Pistorius stressing that “If Russia wins, it may not stop at the Ukrainian border. We must quickly rebuild the German army.”
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Zelensky could not use the opportunity that came to his feet, and he kicked it away to the trashbin. He could have stayed out of NATO, built good relations with both Europe and Russia, made Ukraine a member of the European Union, and thus made his name written with golden letters in history as the leader who paved the way for the big reconciliation between Western Europe and the Eastern Slavs (Ukraine, Russia, Belarus).
In fact, the destiny that history and geography have bestowed upon Ukraine is to be the pioneer of just that great reconciliation. There is no country that can do it better. Zelensky built his 2019 election campaign on promises consistent with exactly that direction. Once elected, he fell under the spell of American politicians whose main aim was to maintain the US position as the global leader, and he followed them.
Zelensky chose to take a big gamble instead of the big compromise – and lost. Kiev’s rightful place is to be the noble bridge connecting Western and Eastern Europe, the eastern equivalent of Brussels, the other unifying center of Europe. He could not do justice to what Kiev deserved, and the magnificent city was turned into the capital of killing fields.
Let’s make it clear. Those who claim “Ukraine fought heroically and deserved EU membership” are no friends of Ukraine. It was never necessary for Ukraine to sink into this easily avoidable and devastating war to prove that it is an integral part of Europe and eligible for EU membership.
Zelensky bears heavy responsibility for the outcome and it is hard for him to survive for an extended period of time. In desperation he now takes small gambles.
He dismissed Chief of General Staff Zaluzhny. The reason is not military or strategic, but because Zaluzhny is the most popular person in Ukraine and has higher public support than Zelensky, due to his heroism in the war in spite of the limited military means available.
Ukrainian soldiers also give full support to the commander. Soldiers of different ranks fighting on the front, interviewed by the Kyiv Post newspaper, attribute the dismissal to Zelensky’s prioritization of his personal political career over the security of the country. One of them says that “replacing Zaluzhny amount to betrayal of Ukraine’s national interests.”
Another sad aspect is Zelensky had to consult Washington prior to making this replacement in the national army.
Along the 1000 km. front where violent fighting continues, Russia now has the upper hand with respect to man power, ammunition and weapon systems. Despite this, Russia’s priority seems to be wearing down the Ukrainian army rather than seizing additional junks of land.
Russian President Putin looks comfortable. In his interview with the American journalist Tucker Carlson, which was watched by more than 200 million people in four days, he answered many questions in laughter. On the other hand, he does not show his hand – like a poker player who keeps the cards stuck to his chest. He emphasizes that he is open to a peace negotiation proposal from Ukraine, but there is no hint what conditions Russia, as the winning side, will dictate on the table.
Peace as soon as possible is in Ukraine’s best interest more than any others. The longer the war drags on, the more likely it is that a dangerous nightmare will descend on the Ukrainian state or army.
Let’s see what Zelensky will do this time.
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(*)- First published in Turkish, in Özgür Siyaset, Febrary 15, 2024, and in other media.
Google translation, reviewed.